Vessel financing model anchored on this price · — backtest gate · ~37% downside cushion
Why this matters
IFF unlocks the premium between traditional ex-vessel pricing (~62% of Toyosu) and direct-channel pricing (~78% of Toyosu) by routing harvest through an Indigenous-owned, Toyosu-direct supply chain. The M16 forecast becomes the underwriting cornerstone for an $8.40M vessel-acquisition financing package.
Key metrics
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Pricing scenarios
Sensitivity to Toyosu sockeye moves. Covenant requires DSCR ≥ 1.45×; even a 25% adverse move clears it.
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Fleet
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Product price book
Eight active SKUs with 24-hour hedge-locked price bands.
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Live signal grid
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Risk posture
Risk
Mitigation
Run-size shortfall
DFO/ADF&G inputs to M16; 25% buffer
Toyosu price collapse
Hedge bands + 30% futures hedge
FX (JPY/CAD)
60% forward-hedged via RBC
Vessel mechanical
Survey + 6% capex reserve + insurance
License/regulatory
Owned via IFF holdco; Nation trust
Climate (snowpack 44%)
Already in M16 inputs; stress case
Indigenous governance
51%+ Indigenous control at Holdings level. Member Nation Trust receives surplus distributions after debt service. Crew preference for Member Nation citizens.
Indigenous Fishers First · Port Alberni, BC · indigenousfishersfirst@gmail.com